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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.17vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.11vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+1.75vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.29+3.50vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-2.53+13.75vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.29+3.80vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+0.01vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.50-1.05vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+2.19vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California-0.10-1.00vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.46-0.23vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.03+0.98vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-0.52-2.11vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-1.03-1.32vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.60+0.57vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-1.11-2.62vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz-1.80-0.77vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-2.56vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26-5.28vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-1.46-5.29vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands-2.64-1.98vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-2.41-3.60vs Predicted
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23California State University Channel Islands-2.97-3.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.17University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.3%1st Place
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4.11University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.2%1st Place
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4.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.1%1st Place
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7.5University of California at Los Angeles0.290.1%1st Place
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18.75Arizona State University-2.530.0%1st Place
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9.8San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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7.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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6.95University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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11.19University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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9.0University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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10.77University of California at Santa Cruz-0.460.0%1st Place
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12.98University of California at Davis-1.030.0%1st Place
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10.89California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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12.68University of California at Berkeley-1.030.0%1st Place
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15.57University of California at San Diego-1.600.0%1st Place
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13.38University of California at Berkeley-1.110.0%1st Place
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16.23University of California at Santa Cruz-1.800.0%1st Place
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15.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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13.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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14.71University of California at Los Angeles-1.460.0%1st Place
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19.02California State University Channel Islands-2.640.0%1st Place
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18.4University of California at San Diego-2.410.0%1st Place
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19.99California State University Channel Islands-2.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 26.4% | 21.2% | 16.4% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 15.4% | 16.2% | 15.3% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 14.0% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| Casey Gignac | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Zemke | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Puts | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Liam Patrick | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Guiraud | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Megan Saenz | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Althea White | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 4.3% |
| Chris Haugen | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 18.9% | 20.3% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 15.4% | 17.9% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 17.8% | 32.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.