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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.28+5.75vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.03+5.45vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.92+1.72vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+4.29vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64+0.78vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.17+4.62vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.52-0.97vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston1.75+0.69vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.40-2.63vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.11-2.49vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74-2.33vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.30-5.00vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.70-0.96vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.72-2.17vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University1.86-6.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.75Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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7.45Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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4.72Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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8.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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5.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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10.62University of Rhode Island1.170.0%1st Place
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6.03Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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8.69College of Charleston1.750.1%1st Place
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6.37Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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7.51University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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7.0Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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12.04Northwestern University0.700.0%1st Place
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11.83Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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8.24Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 9.5% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Emma Cowles | 16.2% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ella Withington | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Dana Haig | 10.9% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 14.4% |
| Payton Thompson | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Grace Squires | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.0% |
| Talia Toland | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Amanda Majernik | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 19.3% | 33.3% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 18.9% | 29.8% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.