Race 5A

yale-women

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Amanda Majernik 7.6% 7.1% 7.3% 7.6% 7.2% 7.6% 7.5% 7.3% 8.2% 6.9% 7.6% 6.8% 5.1% 4.3% 1.9%
Emma Cowles 15.2% 16.0% 11.9% 12.7% 9.1% 9.1% 5.4% 6.5% 5.1% 3.3% 3.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Dana Haig 11.4% 11.3% 12.3% 8.5% 9.3% 9.9% 7.5% 7.6% 6.6% 5.6% 4.6% 2.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2%
Sarah Burn 8.4% 8.0% 8.7% 9.2% 7.7% 7.6% 8.4% 7.1% 7.4% 8.3% 5.8% 5.6% 4.1% 2.9% 0.8%
Payton Thompson 9.4% 11.4% 8.1% 7.8% 9.6% 8.8% 8.9% 8.8% 7.7% 5.9% 4.3% 4.4% 2.7% 1.8% 0.4%
Emma AuBuchon 3.9% 4.8% 5.9% 4.6% 4.7% 6.5% 6.8% 6.6% 7.0% 9.4% 8.9% 10.3% 8.8% 7.9% 3.9%
Talia Toland 10.2% 7.2% 9.3% 8.5% 9.7% 7.9% 8.9% 7.9% 7.4% 6.2% 5.6% 5.0% 3.1% 2.7% 0.4%
Blaire McCarthy 8.2% 7.0% 9.5% 8.0% 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.1% 6.9% 8.9% 6.8% 5.9% 4.1% 2.3% 1.4%
Ellie Maus 5.8% 5.8% 7.1% 7.5% 7.4% 7.4% 8.0% 7.8% 7.9% 7.5% 8.5% 6.7% 6.9% 4.3% 1.4%
Ella Withington 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 6.4% 7.0% 6.0% 6.9% 8.4% 7.1% 8.2% 8.2% 10.0% 7.3% 6.7% 3.5%
Grace Squires 4.2% 5.7% 4.8% 6.4% 4.9% 5.7% 7.3% 6.8% 7.2% 7.6% 8.9% 7.9% 10.5% 7.3% 4.8%
Megan Gimple 2.6% 1.8% 1.7% 2.3% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.2% 5.9% 6.0% 7.5% 9.4% 13.9% 16.3% 15.9%
Marina Hutzler 1.0% 1.4% 2.0% 2.6% 1.6% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.4% 4.2% 5.0% 7.7% 10.1% 19.1% 32.9%
Lucy Paskoff 1.6% 1.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2.5% 1.9% 2.8% 4.0% 4.6% 4.9% 5.6% 7.7% 12.2% 16.9% 29.7%
Riley Kloc 5.6% 6.2% 4.8% 5.8% 7.2% 6.4% 6.5% 6.9% 7.6% 7.1% 9.6% 9.0% 7.9% 6.6% 2.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.