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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74+7.52vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.30+4.66vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.28+3.75vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.92+0.81vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.40+1.54vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.03+1.70vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.11+0.34vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.52-1.98vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64-3.43vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-1.60vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University1.86-2.68vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.70+0.18vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.17-2.24vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.72-2.19vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston1.75-6.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.1%1st Place
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6.66Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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6.75Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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4.81Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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6.54Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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7.7Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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7.34University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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6.02Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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5.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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8.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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8.32Georgetown University1.860.0%1st Place
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12.18Northwestern University0.700.0%1st Place
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10.76University of Rhode Island1.170.0%1st Place
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11.81Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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8.62College of Charleston1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma AuBuchon | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 4.2% |
| Sarah Burn | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Emma Cowles | 15.8% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Talia Toland | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Ellie Maus | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Amanda Majernik | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Payton Thompson | 10.5% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Dana Haig | 10.4% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Ella Withington | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.8% |
| Riley Kloc | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 4.2% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 18.5% | 33.1% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 15.4% | 15.6% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 11.2% | 18.4% | 29.5% |
| Grace Squires | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 3.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.