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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.92+3.63vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.52+3.68vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.30+3.49vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.86+3.97vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston0.48+7.06vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.40+0.22vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.17+3.21vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.11-0.83vs Predicted
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92.64-3.60vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74-1.46vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.28-4.36vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-3.67vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.03-5.35vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.72-2.48vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.70-3.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.63Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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5.68Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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6.49Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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7.97Georgetown University1.860.0%1st Place
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12.06College of Charleston0.480.0%1st Place
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6.22Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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10.21University of Rhode Island1.170.0%1st Place
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7.17University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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5.42.640.1%1st Place
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8.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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6.64Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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8.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.0%1st Place
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7.65Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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11.52Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.5Northwestern University0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 16.8% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Payton Thompson | 10.8% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Burn | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Riley Kloc | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Rowan Schanley | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 19.9% | 32.2% |
| Talia Toland | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan Gimple | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 10.5% |
| Amanda Majernik | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| Dana Haig | 11.5% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 2.6% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Ella Withington | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 1.6% |
| Ellie Maus | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 13.9% | 19.6% | 21.9% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 18.9% | 23.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.