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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.92+3.63vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.03+5.24vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.11+4.08vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.52+1.81vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+3.10vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.30+0.55vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74+1.37vs Predicted
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82.64-2.47vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University1.86-1.04vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston0.48+2.19vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.40-4.69vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.28-5.19vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.72-1.33vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.17-3.76vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.70-3.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.63Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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7.24Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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7.08University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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5.81Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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8.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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6.55Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.1%1st Place
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5.532.640.1%1st Place
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7.96Georgetown University1.860.0%1st Place
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12.19College of Charleston0.480.0%1st Place
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6.31Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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6.81Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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11.67Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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10.24University of Rhode Island1.170.0%1st Place
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11.52Northwestern University0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 15.9% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ellie Maus | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Amanda Majernik | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Payton Thompson | 10.7% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Ella Withington | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Sarah Burn | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% |
| Dana Haig | 12.2% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Riley Kloc | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| Rowan Schanley | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 20.1% | 32.6% |
| Talia Toland | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 18.4% | 24.0% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.5% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 19.0% | 24.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.