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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.40+5.17vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+2.51vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.03+4.36vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.28+2.58vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.11+2.25vs Predicted
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62.64-0.54vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74+1.37vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.30-1.45vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.52-3.23vs Predicted
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10Boston University0.72+1.60vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-2.89vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.17-1.49vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.70-1.27vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University1.86-6.03vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston0.48-2.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.17Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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4.51Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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7.36Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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6.58Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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7.25University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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5.462.640.1%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.1%1st Place
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6.55Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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5.77Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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11.6Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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8.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.0%1st Place
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10.51University of Rhode Island1.170.0%1st Place
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11.73Northwestern University0.700.0%1st Place
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7.97Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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12.05College of Charleston0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talia Toland | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Emma Cowles | 16.1% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Maus | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Amanda Majernik | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Dana Haig | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 2.6% |
| Sarah Burn | 8.5% | 6.3% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Payton Thompson | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 18.6% | 23.3% |
| Ella Withington | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 15.9% | 9.4% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 14.9% | 19.9% | 24.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Rowan Schanley | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 17.1% | 31.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.