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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.28+5.50vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+5.85vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.52+2.77vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74+4.37vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.92-0.20vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.72+5.60vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.40-0.81vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.03-0.52vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.30-2.56vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.11-2.76vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.70+0.60vs Predicted
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122.64-6.33vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.17-2.53vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University1.86-6.08vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston0.48-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.5Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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7.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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5.77Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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4.8Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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11.6Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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6.19Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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7.48Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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6.44Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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7.24University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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11.6Northwestern University0.700.0%1st Place
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5.672.640.1%1st Place
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10.47University of Rhode Island1.170.0%1st Place
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7.92Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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12.1College of Charleston0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 9.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Ella Withington | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Payton Thompson | 11.0% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Emma Cowles | 15.3% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 20.4% | 22.0% |
| Talia Toland | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Ellie Maus | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Sarah Burn | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Amanda Majernik | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 20.4% | 23.7% |
| Dana Haig | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 11.8% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Rowan Schanley | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 18.3% | 33.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.