Race 11A

yale-women

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sarah Burn 10.0% 7.0% 10.7% 8.2% 8.2% 9.4% 7.9% 7.4% 6.5% 8.1% 5.1% 5.4% 3.3% 1.8% 1.0%
Emma Cowles 16.4% 16.4% 12.8% 11.9% 9.6% 8.3% 6.9% 6.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Ella Withington 4.9% 6.1% 5.9% 8.0% 5.9% 6.1% 7.1% 7.7% 9.1% 7.5% 8.4% 9.0% 7.8% 4.7% 1.8%
Emma AuBuchon 4.5% 5.0% 4.6% 7.0% 5.8% 6.8% 6.3% 7.6% 7.8% 9.3% 7.7% 8.5% 10.2% 6.2% 2.7%
Payton Thompson 10.3% 11.0% 8.7% 9.6% 8.9% 9.7% 10.0% 7.7% 7.5% 5.0% 4.0% 3.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Talia Toland 8.4% 8.5% 9.9% 8.9% 9.5% 9.6% 9.8% 8.2% 6.7% 7.4% 5.6% 3.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
Rowan Schanley 2.2% 1.3% 2.1% 1.5% 2.7% 2.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.5% 6.3% 7.3% 12.6% 18.7% 31.4%
Blaire McCarthy 8.1% 8.6% 8.6% 8.3% 9.0% 8.0% 8.4% 8.4% 7.1% 6.9% 7.4% 6.3% 2.3% 2.0% 0.6%
Lucy Paskoff 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 2.0% 3.0% 2.6% 3.2% 3.0% 4.8% 6.2% 7.4% 9.8% 13.8% 18.6% 20.8%
Megan Gimple 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 3.4% 5.3% 4.7% 5.1% 6.9% 7.8% 8.2% 11.5% 11.4% 14.7% 11.3%
Amanda Majernik 6.5% 7.7% 8.1% 8.2% 8.1% 6.3% 7.2% 7.2% 9.4% 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 6.4% 3.5% 0.8%
Dana Haig 10.4% 10.7% 11.7% 10.6% 7.7% 8.8% 9.8% 8.0% 6.9% 6.1% 4.9% 2.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Ellie Maus 6.7% 6.0% 5.8% 6.2% 7.6% 7.2% 7.6% 8.0% 8.2% 9.0% 8.9% 7.3% 6.4% 3.8% 1.3%
Marina Hutzler 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 4.8% 4.3% 5.5% 7.4% 7.7% 12.2% 18.2% 25.1%
Riley Kloc 5.6% 6.0% 5.6% 5.5% 8.2% 7.1% 5.8% 7.8% 8.0% 8.0% 9.0% 9.4% 6.4% 4.9% 2.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.