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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.92+3.62vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.28+4.37vs Predicted
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32.64+2.40vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.52+1.87vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74+3.43vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+2.05vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.86+0.94vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University0.70+3.61vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.11-1.87vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston0.48+2.18vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.40-4.71vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.17-1.54vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.03-5.36vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.72-2.51vs Predicted
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15Harvard University2.30-8.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.62Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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6.37Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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5.42.640.1%1st Place
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5.87Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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8.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.1%1st Place
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8.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.0%1st Place
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7.94Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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11.61Northwestern University0.700.0%1st Place
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7.13University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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12.18College of Charleston0.480.0%1st Place
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6.29Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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10.46University of Rhode Island1.170.0%1st Place
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7.64Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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11.49Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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6.5Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 16.4% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 7.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Dana Haig | 11.7% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Payton Thompson | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 2.0% |
| Ella Withington | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Riley Kloc | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Marina Hutzler | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 18.2% | 24.6% |
| Amanda Majernik | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Rowan Schanley | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 18.9% | 32.0% |
| Talia Toland | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 11.2% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 18.6% | 22.3% |
| Sarah Burn | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.