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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+8.56vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+1.83vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.46+2.73vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island0.51+7.90vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.70+0.17vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+0.93vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.33-0.85vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.01+2.59vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.29-2.77vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.18-3.23vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.44-1.77vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.39-2.39vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University1.69-4.39vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.28-4.36vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston1.17-4.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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3.83Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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5.73Brown University2.460.1%1st Place
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11.9University of Rhode Island0.510.0%1st Place
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5.17Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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6.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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6.15Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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10.59Northwestern University1.010.0%1st Place
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6.23Harvard University2.290.1%1st Place
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6.77University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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9.23Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.61George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.61Georgetown University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.64Tufts University1.280.0%1st Place
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10.05College of Charleston1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 9.2% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 22.3% | 17.5% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 9.3% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Mackenzie Fraser | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 33.1% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 12.7% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Gray Hemans | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 15.7% |
| Marbella Marlo | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Torrey Chisari | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 5.9% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 7.9% |
| Morgan Sailer | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% |
| Alexandra Talbot | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% |
| Fredrikke Foss | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.