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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.70+4.02vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.18+4.53vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.46+2.73vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.29+2.31vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+1.97vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island0.51+6.05vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.33-0.79vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.44+1.19vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.39+0.26vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.12-6.00vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University1.69-2.62vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.01-1.21vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston1.17-2.76vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-4.29vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.28-5.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.02Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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6.53University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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5.73Brown University2.460.1%1st Place
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6.31Harvard University2.290.1%1st Place
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6.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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12.05University of Rhode Island0.510.0%1st Place
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6.21Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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9.19Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.26George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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4.0Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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8.38Georgetown University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.79Northwestern University1.010.0%1st Place
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10.24College of Charleston1.170.0%1st Place
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9.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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9.61Tufts University1.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 14.9% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.3% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 11.0% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Marbella Marlo | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Mackenzie Fraser | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 15.5% | 35.4% |
| Gray Hemans | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 4.2% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 19.2% | 17.1% | 15.4% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 16.2% |
| Fredrikke Foss | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 12.8% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 8.3% |
| Alexandra Talbot | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.