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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.46+4.79vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.18+4.54vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.29+3.24vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.33+2.21vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.17+1.84vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.70-1.00vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.12-3.06vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+1.76vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.17+1.05vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.39-0.60vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University1.69-2.62vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.28-2.01vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.44-3.59vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University1.01-3.46vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island0.51-3.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Brown University2.460.1%1st Place
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6.54University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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6.24Harvard University2.290.1%1st Place
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6.21Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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6.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.170.1%1st Place
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5.0Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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3.94Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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9.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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10.05College of Charleston1.170.0%1st Place
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9.4George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.38Georgetown University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.99Tufts University1.280.0%1st Place
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9.41Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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10.54Northwestern University1.010.0%1st Place
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11.91University of Rhode Island0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brielle Willoughby | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Marbella Marlo | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Gray Hemans | 10.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Kaila Pfrang | 7.4% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 13.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 19.9% | 18.8% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 9.5% |
| Fredrikke Foss | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 9.8% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 7.3% |
| Morgan Sailer | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
| Alexandra Talbot | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 9.8% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 15.8% |
| Mackenzie Fraser | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 16.3% | 33.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.