Race 16A

2021-victorian-urn

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Claire Siegel-Wilson 2.6% 3.6% 4.9% 5.2% 5.6% 4.4% 6.2% 5.7% 6.8% 8.2% 7.8% 8.0% 10.3% 7.4% 9.9% 3.4%
Colleen O'Brien 14.7% 15.3% 13.2% 9.8% 9.7% 8.7% 7.0% 6.3% 5.4% 3.9% 3.1% 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Dana Haig 10.9% 7.9% 7.6% 9.5% 9.8% 9.0% 8.9% 8.9% 6.8% 7.1% 5.5% 3.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.1%
Grace Gear 3.7% 4.6% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 6.1% 6.6% 7.5% 8.9% 7.7% 7.7% 8.4% 8.0% 6.1% 2.6%
Emma Kaneti 9.7% 9.6% 10.0% 9.8% 9.3% 9.0% 9.4% 7.5% 5.8% 5.7% 6.0% 4.1% 2.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Emily Bornarth 7.6% 6.2% 9.5% 9.1% 8.4% 7.4% 8.5% 7.9% 7.1% 6.1% 8.1% 4.8% 3.8% 3.1% 2.1% 0.3%
Olivia Belda 13.9% 10.1% 9.8% 10.3% 10.5% 9.3% 7.8% 7.3% 5.4% 5.9% 3.5% 3.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Carmen Cowles 10.9% 11.3% 10.6% 10.8% 7.8% 9.4% 8.2% 7.0% 7.8% 5.1% 4.3% 3.3% 1.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Ellie Maus 5.4% 5.3% 5.7% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 6.9% 8.0% 9.5% 8.3% 6.9% 7.8% 6.1% 6.3% 3.7% 1.7%
Abbie Carlson 3.7% 4.9% 3.4% 5.1% 4.2% 5.1% 5.9% 6.2% 7.4% 9.0% 9.1% 10.8% 8.9% 8.1% 4.7% 3.5%
Megan Gimple 2.7% 2.2% 2.9% 2.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.0% 4.2% 4.1% 5.6% 7.3% 9.0% 9.4% 12.7% 14.6% 12.2%
Molly Hanrahan 0.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8% 3.0% 2.9% 5.2% 4.5% 6.7% 8.5% 9.9% 15.2% 32.4%
Payton Thompson 7.2% 10.5% 8.5% 8.1% 8.4% 9.8% 8.4% 8.3% 7.8% 5.3% 6.1% 5.0% 4.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Aili Moffet 2.0% 2.3% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 3.0% 3.6% 4.2% 5.7% 5.3% 7.6% 8.3% 11.2% 11.3% 15.1% 12.4%
Lucia Loosbrock 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 3.8% 5.0% 5.9% 5.9% 6.1% 6.5% 8.1% 10.0% 11.2% 12.9% 7.3% 5.7%
Lucy Paskoff 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4% 7.5% 8.5% 13.7% 17.6% 25.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.