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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+10.09vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.12+5.53vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.61+6.53vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.94+3.84vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.80+3.47vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.42+0.18vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.47-0.97vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.72+4.49vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.93-4.51vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.09-2.38vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.01-3.17vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.11-0.50vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.57-3.76vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-3.81vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.98-3.37vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.82-7.51vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University1.06-2.32vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy0.27-1.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.0%1st Place
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7.53Harvard University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.53Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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7.84Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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8.47University of Rhode Island2.800.1%1st Place
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6.18Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.03Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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12.49Northeastern University1.720.0%1st Place
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4.49Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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7.62Roger Williams University3.090.1%1st Place
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7.83Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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11.5University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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9.24Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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10.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.310.0%1st Place
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11.63Salve Regina University1.980.0%1st Place
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8.49Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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14.68Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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16.18Maine Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kickhafer | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 3.1% |
| Eli Burnes | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Merson | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Alden Grimes | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Aidan naughton | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Matt Hersey | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 6.9% |
| Shawn Harvey | 17.4% | 16.4% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack DeNatale | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Connell Phillipps | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 3.5% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| John Ped | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Alex Bowdler | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 25.6% | 22.9% |
| Luke Healy | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 17.5% | 55.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.