Race 4B

maisa-fall-women

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma AuBuchon 8.7% 10.2% 12.1% 10.5% 12.2% 11.2% 12.4% 8.2% 7.6% 3.6% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0%
Lily Flack 4.2% 5.0% 4.5% 6.2% 8.1% 8.7% 8.6% 12.4% 13.3% 12.0% 9.0% 6.4% 1.6%
Camille McGriff 7.0% 8.6% 9.5% 10.1% 9.9% 11.9% 12.7% 11.0% 8.4% 6.3% 3.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Piper Holthus 22.4% 19.5% 16.6% 12.8% 10.0% 8.0% 5.5% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Lilly Myers 22.8% 20.3% 15.2% 13.1% 10.1% 8.6% 5.0% 2.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Elizabeth Gildea 6.4% 6.1% 8.4% 7.9% 10.5% 9.6% 12.8% 11.5% 10.5% 8.0% 5.7% 2.3% 0.3%
Sofia Segalla 14.8% 12.8% 12.1% 14.7% 13.2% 10.1% 6.9% 7.8% 4.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Morgan Essex 1.3% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 2.7% 3.3% 4.9% 7.2% 9.7% 15.2% 17.4% 16.5% 13.8%
Elizabeth Cutler 7.1% 9.4% 9.3% 10.2% 10.4% 13.2% 9.6% 10.7% 9.2% 6.8% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Elizabeth Harrington 0.9% 0.9% 1.8% 2.1% 1.7% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% 6.4% 9.1% 14.8% 20.4% 32.6%
Laura Smith 1.1% 0.7% 1.7% 1.5% 2.9% 2.7% 5.1% 5.0% 8.6% 11.6% 17.8% 20.9% 20.4%
Jessica Schaefer 0.8% 0.9% 1.5% 2.5% 1.5% 2.3% 4.0% 4.9% 7.2% 9.2% 14.9% 21.9% 28.4%
Carlyn Blauvelt 2.5% 3.2% 4.8% 5.3% 6.8% 7.8% 9.5% 12.4% 12.0% 14.7% 10.6% 8.0% 2.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.