Race 5B

maisa-fall-women

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Piper Holthus 21.8% 20.1% 15.0% 13.4% 10.9% 8.7% 4.6% 3.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Camille McGriff 7.8% 7.1% 10.1% 10.7% 11.4% 10.6% 11.9% 10.7% 8.9% 5.9% 2.9% 1.7% 0.3%
Lilly Myers 20.1% 20.7% 15.9% 12.8% 11.0% 8.5% 5.5% 3.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sofia Segalla 12.7% 13.4% 13.8% 13.7% 12.2% 10.5% 9.3% 6.7% 4.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Emma AuBuchon 10.3% 10.7% 12.1% 9.6% 11.1% 12.1% 11.2% 9.3% 6.9% 4.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Elizabeth Gildea 6.7% 5.9% 6.9% 10.3% 9.5% 9.6% 13.1% 11.7% 9.2% 8.5% 5.4% 2.9% 0.3%
Elizabeth Cutler 9.3% 8.9% 9.7% 9.4% 11.8% 11.6% 10.0% 9.9% 9.2% 6.4% 2.1% 1.6% 0.1%
Morgan Essex 1.6% 2.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.9% 3.9% 3.6% 8.1% 11.8% 13.2% 18.0% 16.3% 13.6%
Lily Flack 3.7% 4.4% 5.9% 5.8% 6.6% 9.3% 10.2% 11.5% 12.0% 14.4% 8.9% 5.3% 2.0%
Laura Smith 1.0% 1.2% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 3.0% 4.9% 8.0% 11.1% 15.6% 20.7% 25.0%
Elizabeth Harrington 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 2.4% 2.3% 4.0% 5.1% 6.3% 9.8% 16.5% 22.3% 27.3%
Jessica Schaefer 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 2.0% 1.4% 3.1% 4.0% 4.9% 6.9% 9.5% 15.3% 20.9% 28.9%
Carlyn Blauvelt 3.3% 3.0% 4.8% 5.9% 6.2% 7.3% 9.6% 10.6% 14.1% 13.3% 12.1% 7.6% 2.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.