Race 2A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Marissa Tegeder 5.1% 5.0% 5.1% 6.5% 7.3% 6.8% 7.9% 11.8% 9.8% 15.2% 11.6% 7.9%
Jenna Probst 23.8% 20.7% 15.6% 12.1% 9.1% 8.2% 5.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Tarkan Bolat 14.7% 12.8% 12.8% 11.9% 12.9% 10.3% 8.6% 8.1% 3.9% 2.0% 1.4% 0.6%
Rachel Bartel 5.1% 5.3% 6.9% 8.7% 8.4% 8.5% 9.8% 10.2% 10.4% 10.3% 11.3% 5.1%
Will Davies 7.8% 9.4% 9.1% 10.7% 7.9% 9.8% 9.9% 9.0% 9.6% 7.8% 5.7% 3.3%
Liam Walz 10.6% 10.7% 10.8% 9.6% 12.2% 9.7% 10.9% 8.7% 7.3% 4.6% 3.6% 1.3%
William Carroll 10.4% 10.3% 11.1% 10.8% 9.1% 10.0% 10.7% 8.8% 8.4% 5.6% 3.5% 1.3%
Joseph Gallagher 7.4% 6.7% 7.3% 7.0% 7.6% 10.2% 8.9% 8.5% 10.5% 11.3% 9.5% 5.1%
Donny Marwin 2.4% 3.0% 4.4% 3.2% 5.1% 6.9% 7.8% 8.4% 9.9% 13.7% 19.5% 15.7%
Odey Hariri 5.8% 5.7% 7.0% 7.9% 9.4% 7.3% 8.5% 10.9% 11.3% 11.6% 9.3% 5.3%
Ella Reinemann 6.0% 8.0% 8.1% 9.6% 8.5% 10.3% 9.6% 10.3% 10.3% 9.2% 6.9% 3.2%
Lucia Marquez 0.9% 2.4% 1.8% 2.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.8% 7.1% 7.9% 17.4% 51.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.