Race 3A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jenna Probst 23.1% 19.9% 16.2% 14.0% 8.6% 7.5% 4.7% 3.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Marissa Tegeder 4.2% 4.5% 7.4% 5.9% 7.8% 8.7% 8.5% 10.1% 11.4% 12.2% 13.2% 6.1%
Odey Hariri 5.9% 5.8% 6.4% 6.1% 8.0% 9.2% 9.1% 10.1% 10.8% 12.4% 11.6% 4.6%
Will Davies 7.1% 8.1% 9.8% 9.2% 9.9% 10.2% 11.4% 9.6% 8.0% 9.0% 5.2% 2.5%
Joseph Gallagher 5.5% 7.4% 6.2% 7.9% 9.4% 7.6% 9.4% 10.3% 12.1% 9.8% 8.7% 5.7%
William Carroll 10.7% 9.1% 7.9% 11.0% 11.2% 11.0% 10.2% 10.5% 6.9% 6.5% 3.9% 1.1%
Tarkan Bolat 14.4% 15.1% 13.2% 12.1% 10.4% 10.2% 9.0% 5.6% 4.0% 3.9% 1.1% 1.0%
Ella Reinemann 8.5% 7.1% 10.0% 8.2% 9.7% 8.4% 11.3% 8.6% 10.0% 8.0% 7.3% 2.9%
Liam Walz 9.8% 12.3% 12.3% 11.0% 10.6% 11.4% 7.8% 9.7% 7.6% 4.9% 2.2% 0.4%
Rachel Bartel 7.1% 5.6% 6.2% 8.3% 6.8% 8.4% 10.0% 10.7% 10.9% 10.5% 10.3% 5.2%
Donny Marwin 2.5% 3.0% 3.4% 4.0% 4.9% 5.6% 5.6% 8.2% 10.2% 14.2% 20.1% 18.3%
Lucia Marquez 1.2% 2.1% 1.0% 2.3% 2.7% 1.8% 3.0% 3.5% 6.6% 7.6% 16.0% 52.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.