Race 4A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jenna Probst 23.0% 20.7% 16.0% 12.3% 10.7% 7.1% 4.6% 2.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Liam Walz 9.3% 10.4% 11.1% 10.3% 12.1% 9.5% 10.8% 10.1% 6.6% 4.6% 4.4% 0.8%
Will Davies 9.1% 6.5% 9.0% 9.3% 9.0% 10.6% 11.5% 9.5% 11.9% 5.8% 6.1% 1.7%
William Carroll 8.4% 10.3% 9.3% 11.5% 11.6% 9.4% 11.3% 8.7% 7.6% 6.3% 3.7% 1.9%
Joseph Gallagher 5.8% 6.2% 6.9% 8.2% 8.1% 10.2% 8.1% 10.6% 10.4% 11.3% 8.8% 5.4%
Odey Hariri 5.6% 6.3% 6.5% 7.4% 6.3% 8.8% 9.3% 10.6% 9.6% 12.1% 12.4% 5.1%
Marissa Tegeder 5.1% 5.2% 7.0% 7.0% 6.9% 8.2% 8.6% 8.7% 11.4% 12.8% 12.7% 6.4%
Ella Reinemann 8.5% 7.8% 9.1% 9.3% 8.5% 9.3% 9.3% 11.0% 9.5% 8.5% 5.6% 3.6%
Tarkan Bolat 15.2% 15.8% 13.5% 11.4% 12.6% 9.1% 7.9% 6.7% 3.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.0%
Donny Marwin 3.6% 3.1% 4.0% 3.4% 4.6% 7.3% 6.6% 7.7% 10.0% 12.4% 19.7% 17.6%
Rachel Bartel 5.2% 6.2% 5.7% 7.2% 8.0% 8.7% 9.2% 9.8% 12.2% 12.6% 9.5% 5.7%
Lucia Marquez 1.2% 1.5% 1.9% 2.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.8% 4.0% 5.0% 9.8% 15.9% 51.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.