Race 5A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jenna Probst 24.1% 19.5% 14.4% 14.2% 10.7% 7.2% 4.6% 2.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Will Davies 6.9% 8.2% 9.5% 9.9% 10.5% 10.1% 9.4% 10.1% 9.6% 8.3% 5.8% 1.7%
Ella Reinemann 8.5% 7.3% 8.4% 7.4% 9.6% 8.4% 11.7% 10.5% 9.8% 8.8% 7.2% 2.4%
Tarkan Bolat 12.6% 14.7% 13.4% 13.0% 10.7% 10.5% 8.2% 6.2% 5.7% 2.9% 1.5% 0.6%
William Carroll 9.8% 10.8% 8.1% 11.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.1% 8.9% 8.0% 5.2% 5.1% 1.6%
Marissa Tegeder 4.8% 5.2% 6.7% 6.2% 5.4% 8.3% 9.3% 10.2% 10.2% 14.2% 12.5% 7.0%
Odey Hariri 6.1% 5.5% 8.0% 7.1% 8.4% 8.8% 8.9% 9.2% 11.5% 9.6% 11.5% 5.4%
Joseph Gallagher 7.1% 6.9% 7.6% 7.1% 7.0% 9.1% 8.1% 11.6% 10.4% 12.7% 7.1% 5.3%
Liam Walz 9.9% 11.0% 12.3% 11.1% 12.7% 9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 6.4% 4.9% 2.7% 0.6%
Donny Marwin 3.5% 3.4% 3.9% 3.7% 4.9% 6.2% 6.7% 8.3% 9.9% 11.4% 20.6% 17.5%
Rachel Bartel 5.5% 5.6% 6.1% 6.8% 7.7% 9.2% 10.4% 10.0% 10.9% 12.4% 10.2% 5.2%
Lucia Marquez 1.2% 1.9% 1.6% 2.4% 1.9% 2.0% 3.1% 3.0% 6.1% 8.5% 15.6% 52.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.