Race 6A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Tarkan Bolat 13.7% 13.7% 12.0% 12.3% 12.6% 10.3% 8.0% 7.5% 4.3% 3.6% 1.8% 0.2%
Marissa Tegeder 4.0% 5.7% 5.0% 7.4% 8.1% 9.4% 6.3% 9.9% 11.4% 13.0% 13.6% 6.2%
William Carroll 10.8% 8.5% 10.1% 8.9% 12.5% 10.2% 9.9% 10.9% 8.0% 5.9% 3.1% 1.2%
Jenna Probst 23.0% 23.3% 16.5% 11.8% 7.8% 6.4% 6.2% 2.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2%
Joseph Gallagher 5.4% 7.7% 6.8% 7.5% 7.5% 9.7% 9.3% 9.5% 10.1% 11.1% 9.9% 5.5%
Ella Reinemann 7.4% 7.8% 9.1% 7.8% 8.4% 10.2% 10.5% 10.5% 10.0% 9.4% 6.3% 2.6%
Rachel Bartel 6.4% 6.8% 5.5% 8.9% 8.7% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 11.1% 11.6% 9.9% 4.5%
Will Davies 10.1% 7.9% 9.1% 9.4% 9.6% 8.6% 10.5% 9.5% 9.9% 6.6% 6.3% 2.5%
Odey Hariri 4.4% 5.4% 8.1% 7.7% 8.5% 10.4% 10.0% 10.4% 9.5% 10.8% 10.9% 3.9%
Liam Walz 10.6% 9.4% 12.6% 11.9% 9.2% 9.1% 11.3% 9.4% 7.0% 5.1% 3.8% 0.6%
Donny Marwin 3.0% 2.4% 3.6% 4.0% 4.3% 5.5% 6.7% 7.1% 11.8% 13.1% 18.9% 19.6%
Lucia Marquez 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 2.4% 2.8% 1.9% 2.3% 3.6% 5.1% 9.3% 15.4% 53.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.