Race 7A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jenna Probst 23.1% 19.6% 18.0% 12.9% 8.8% 6.5% 5.4% 3.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Tarkan Bolat 13.6% 13.9% 14.1% 11.0% 12.1% 10.0% 8.7% 6.6% 5.4% 2.6% 1.8% 0.2%
Joseph Gallagher 7.0% 5.4% 6.0% 7.8% 9.3% 7.8% 8.9% 10.9% 11.0% 12.9% 8.8% 4.2%
Ella Reinemann 6.0% 9.1% 8.2% 9.6% 9.5% 9.8% 11.2% 9.3% 9.8% 8.4% 6.3% 2.8%
Donny Marwin 2.7% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 5.5% 6.4% 6.8% 7.4% 9.1% 11.5% 18.4% 20.7%
Marissa Tegeder 5.3% 5.4% 5.6% 7.1% 5.4% 8.1% 8.8% 8.7% 11.9% 13.0% 13.7% 7.0%
Odey Hariri 6.4% 5.8% 6.7% 9.5% 7.2% 8.6% 9.2% 10.1% 10.5% 10.7% 9.4% 5.9%
Liam Walz 11.3% 12.3% 10.7% 9.6% 10.2% 12.0% 9.3% 7.8% 7.2% 4.7% 3.1% 1.8%
Lucia Marquez 1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 3.3% 5.5% 5.5% 10.2% 16.8% 48.4%
William Carroll 9.5% 9.8% 11.4% 9.4% 11.2% 11.2% 9.4% 9.1% 7.0% 7.0% 3.8% 1.2%
Rachel Bartel 5.9% 4.9% 6.8% 6.7% 8.4% 8.3% 9.3% 11.0% 10.8% 10.6% 11.1% 6.2%
Will Davies 7.8% 8.9% 7.7% 10.1% 10.3% 9.0% 9.7% 10.6% 9.8% 8.2% 6.3% 1.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.