Race 9A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Tarkan Bolat 13.7% 12.8% 12.9% 13.5% 11.3% 10.7% 7.9% 7.0% 4.8% 3.4% 1.6% 0.4%
Will Davies 6.5% 9.4% 10.0% 9.8% 9.1% 10.2% 10.6% 9.7% 8.8% 8.1% 5.6% 2.2%
Jenna Probst 24.9% 20.9% 14.4% 12.3% 10.6% 7.0% 4.7% 2.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Ella Reinemann 6.5% 7.1% 8.7% 10.0% 9.7% 8.6% 9.9% 11.4% 10.0% 7.6% 7.7% 2.8%
Donny Marwin 2.5% 3.6% 3.6% 4.8% 4.7% 5.9% 6.7% 7.7% 9.7% 12.4% 19.2% 19.2%
Rachel Bartel 6.2% 6.5% 6.2% 6.4% 6.9% 9.1% 9.1% 10.4% 11.6% 12.5% 10.8% 4.3%
Joseph Gallagher 6.5% 6.6% 7.1% 8.3% 8.4% 8.9% 8.4% 9.3% 12.1% 11.8% 8.5% 4.1%
Marissa Tegeder 6.1% 5.4% 5.2% 7.2% 7.6% 7.5% 8.7% 9.2% 10.0% 12.4% 13.7% 7.0%
William Carroll 8.9% 10.2% 12.8% 10.7% 11.0% 10.4% 9.8% 9.1% 7.1% 5.3% 3.5% 1.2%
Odey Hariri 6.3% 6.1% 6.5% 5.7% 8.7% 7.0% 10.7% 10.3% 11.6% 12.4% 8.9% 5.8%
Lucia Marquez 1.6% 1.6% 0.9% 1.5% 2.3% 3.1% 3.6% 3.4% 4.9% 8.1% 17.1% 51.9%
Liam Walz 10.3% 9.8% 11.7% 9.8% 9.7% 11.6% 9.9% 9.6% 8.0% 5.4% 3.1% 1.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.