Race 11A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jenna Probst 23.0% 21.3% 16.2% 12.9% 8.8% 7.6% 4.3% 1.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Marissa Tegeder 4.3% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.2% 8.3% 7.2% 8.4% 11.8% 14.3% 13.0% 6.5%
Tarkan Bolat 16.3% 11.0% 13.1% 12.5% 12.1% 10.2% 7.6% 8.0% 5.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.3%
William Carroll 8.0% 11.5% 9.4% 12.1% 10.2% 9.4% 10.9% 8.3% 8.3% 7.0% 3.2% 1.7%
Ella Reinemann 7.4% 7.9% 9.3% 8.6% 9.0% 8.5% 11.0% 10.3% 9.9% 7.6% 7.0% 3.5%
Rachel Bartel 5.9% 6.6% 6.5% 6.3% 7.9% 9.2% 9.1% 10.6% 11.0% 11.0% 10.7% 5.2%
Donny Marwin 3.5% 3.3% 4.1% 4.0% 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 6.9% 10.6% 12.2% 20.5% 17.0%
Liam Walz 11.3% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 8.8% 10.1% 10.6% 9.1% 7.0% 5.0% 3.3% 1.5%
Odey Hariri 5.2% 5.8% 7.3% 7.3% 9.0% 9.2% 10.7% 10.8% 9.8% 10.7% 10.7% 3.5%
Will Davies 8.3% 8.6% 9.4% 9.0% 9.5% 9.5% 12.1% 10.5% 8.0% 7.6% 5.3% 2.2%
Joseph Gallagher 5.8% 5.9% 6.1% 6.9% 8.5% 9.5% 8.4% 11.4% 9.9% 12.4% 10.4% 4.8%
Lucia Marquez 1.0% 2.0% 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 4.1% 5.6% 8.7% 14.3% 53.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.