Race 12A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ella Reinemann 7.5% 6.7% 8.4% 8.5% 10.0% 10.3% 10.4% 9.7% 9.4% 9.2% 6.6% 3.3%
Tarkan Bolat 12.5% 13.7% 14.5% 12.8% 11.3% 10.0% 8.6% 7.3% 4.9% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Joseph Gallagher 6.7% 5.6% 6.7% 7.1% 8.4% 8.3% 9.6% 9.9% 11.7% 11.6% 9.8% 4.6%
Marissa Tegeder 4.5% 4.2% 5.5% 6.7% 9.0% 7.7% 9.2% 9.5% 11.6% 12.8% 12.3% 7.0%
Donny Marwin 2.8% 3.0% 4.7% 3.8% 4.2% 6.7% 6.9% 7.5% 9.9% 13.7% 19.6% 17.2%
William Carroll 9.7% 9.8% 10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 10.9% 12.3% 8.2% 7.3% 7.2% 3.5% 1.1%
Rachel Bartel 6.4% 5.8% 7.9% 8.4% 8.5% 7.6% 8.8% 9.3% 11.6% 11.5% 9.9% 4.3%
Liam Walz 10.6% 12.3% 9.7% 11.9% 9.9% 9.3% 9.8% 10.0% 6.5% 5.1% 3.6% 1.3%
Jenna Probst 25.5% 23.0% 14.8% 11.9% 8.6% 7.4% 4.1% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Odey Hariri 6.5% 5.0% 6.9% 8.5% 8.4% 7.5% 8.6% 11.5% 10.3% 9.7% 11.2% 5.9%
Will Davies 6.5% 8.9% 9.0% 8.4% 9.8% 11.5% 9.2% 10.8% 8.8% 7.6% 6.8% 2.7%
Lucia Marquez 0.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 6.7% 8.5% 15.4% 52.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.