Race 13A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jenna Probst 22.3% 20.6% 16.1% 13.2% 10.7% 6.7% 4.2% 3.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Joseph Gallagher 5.3% 6.7% 7.1% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.4% 9.9% 12.2% 11.1% 9.1% 4.1%
William Carroll 11.3% 7.7% 10.0% 10.3% 9.5% 11.6% 11.2% 9.6% 8.3% 6.3% 3.1% 1.1%
Tarkan Bolat 12.1% 16.4% 12.3% 13.4% 11.2% 10.7% 8.6% 6.1% 4.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.7%
Rachel Bartel 5.8% 7.0% 6.5% 6.4% 7.7% 9.4% 9.2% 10.5% 9.4% 11.5% 11.1% 5.5%
Odey Hariri 6.2% 5.3% 7.5% 6.2% 6.5% 8.9% 8.8% 10.6% 12.5% 11.1% 11.3% 5.1%
Liam Walz 11.2% 11.2% 11.9% 9.4% 11.5% 10.4% 9.6% 8.5% 6.0% 5.7% 2.7% 1.9%
Will Davies 9.8% 8.3% 9.3% 9.4% 9.0% 10.0% 10.4% 8.8% 8.8% 7.4% 6.2% 2.6%
Marissa Tegeder 4.0% 4.6% 6.5% 8.1% 7.5% 7.0% 10.6% 11.2% 10.9% 11.1% 13.3% 5.2%
Ella Reinemann 8.1% 7.3% 8.7% 7.9% 11.1% 9.0% 9.9% 11.1% 9.1% 8.6% 6.8% 2.4%
Donny Marwin 2.6% 3.0% 2.8% 4.8% 3.9% 5.9% 6.5% 7.5% 10.2% 14.1% 19.1% 19.6%
Lucia Marquez 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 2.2% 2.7% 1.7% 2.6% 3.2% 6.4% 9.0% 15.9% 51.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.