Race 14A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Rachel Bartel 6.0% 5.5% 6.1% 8.0% 8.0% 8.7% 7.8% 8.5% 11.1% 10.2% 9.0% 8.2% 2.9%
Tarkan Bolat 14.0% 12.6% 13.0% 13.5% 10.8% 8.7% 8.3% 6.5% 6.3% 3.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Ella Reinemann 6.2% 7.1% 9.5% 8.0% 9.0% 8.3% 9.1% 10.9% 9.3% 9.5% 6.2% 5.5% 1.4%
Joseph Gallagher 4.9% 6.4% 7.4% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 9.6% 9.3% 8.5% 10.6% 9.7% 7.9% 2.9%
Marissa Tegeder 5.4% 5.4% 5.7% 6.5% 6.8% 8.0% 6.5% 8.8% 10.0% 11.7% 10.3% 11.3% 3.6%
Liam Walz 10.6% 9.9% 10.7% 11.3% 10.7% 10.3% 8.6% 7.4% 7.3% 5.0% 5.4% 2.5% 0.3%
William Carroll 10.4% 10.1% 8.9% 10.1% 9.6% 10.5% 9.3% 8.2% 7.5% 7.3% 4.8% 2.2% 1.1%
Will Davies 7.7% 10.6% 6.3% 9.2% 9.7% 10.5% 10.1% 7.9% 8.6% 8.0% 6.6% 3.5% 1.3%
Jenna Probst 23.7% 19.6% 16.1% 11.6% 10.8% 5.9% 4.8% 4.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Donny Marwin 3.1% 3.2% 4.1% 3.4% 3.3% 6.5% 6.2% 8.1% 7.3% 9.6% 14.4% 16.2% 14.6%
Odey Hariri 5.0% 6.5% 7.6% 6.1% 7.2% 8.5% 10.4% 9.6% 11.2% 7.8% 8.9% 7.0% 4.2%
Lucia Marquez 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 4.1% 4.7% 6.0% 8.9% 15.6% 47.6%
Brittany Shabino 2.0% 2.0% 3.2% 2.7% 3.8% 4.5% 6.4% 6.5% 7.0% 9.7% 13.2% 19.1% 19.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.