Race 1B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hailey Feinzig 17.8% 17.5% 14.3% 14.0% 11.0% 9.6% 7.2% 4.5% 2.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sherman Thompson 20.2% 18.0% 16.2% 12.6% 11.0% 8.0% 7.2% 3.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Lillian Nemeth 12.6% 13.1% 13.9% 12.1% 11.5% 12.4% 8.6% 7.0% 5.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Michael Rivkin 6.4% 6.5% 7.9% 9.0% 9.1% 9.3% 12.0% 13.4% 10.1% 10.1% 4.7% 1.3% 0.2%
Andrew Michels 4.2% 4.1% 4.5% 6.7% 6.3% 7.6% 8.9% 10.7% 14.3% 16.7% 10.9% 4.1% 1.0%
Greg Bittle 7.8% 7.9% 9.7% 9.0% 10.5% 11.3% 10.6% 11.8% 10.7% 6.0% 3.6% 1.0% 0.1%
Mary Castellini 11.5% 13.3% 11.4% 9.9% 13.5% 10.5% 9.7% 8.7% 7.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Emma Turner 6.0% 6.4% 6.5% 8.4% 7.6% 11.1% 10.8% 12.2% 12.7% 11.7% 5.3% 1.0% 0.3%
River Martin 0.7% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 2.6% 4.0% 7.0% 16.5% 33.9% 26.4%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 9.7% 8.3% 10.8% 10.5% 11.4% 10.0% 10.5% 10.5% 9.4% 4.6% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Chase Ireland 1.9% 2.3% 2.4% 4.4% 4.5% 5.1% 6.8% 9.2% 12.3% 20.0% 17.0% 11.3% 2.8%
Russell English 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% 5.0% 7.9% 22.2% 58.3%
Arthur Brown 1.0% 1.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 2.5% 3.9% 4.2% 8.2% 11.8% 28.3% 23.5% 10.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.