Race 2B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

83.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hailey Feinzig 18.5% 16.1% 16.3% 16.2% 12.1% 9.0% 6.3% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Lillian Nemeth 13.2% 15.9% 12.8% 15.2% 11.4% 12.0% 9.3% 6.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Mary Castellini 13.5% 10.7% 13.8% 11.4% 13.3% 12.4% 11.8% 7.5% 3.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Sherman Thompson 20.0% 21.4% 16.1% 12.6% 11.7% 8.9% 4.7% 2.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Greg Bittle 8.7% 7.8% 9.8% 10.8% 11.0% 14.0% 11.3% 12.4% 8.2% 4.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Michael Rivkin 7.1% 8.0% 8.6% 8.3% 10.0% 11.8% 13.6% 14.7% 10.9% 5.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 9.9% 11.2% 11.1% 11.3% 11.6% 12.6% 11.8% 10.8% 6.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Andrew Michels 5.3% 3.9% 5.1% 6.2% 7.9% 8.5% 12.2% 15.3% 18.4% 10.9% 5.2% 1.1%
Chase Ireland 1.8% 2.1% 2.8% 3.6% 5.0% 5.7% 11.0% 12.2% 21.2% 22.4% 10.1% 2.1%
Arthur Brown 1.0% 1.4% 2.3% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 4.7% 8.4% 13.7% 25.1% 24.4% 10.0%
Russell English 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 2.1% 4.3% 8.5% 18.6% 62.3%
River Martin 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 2.2% 1.4% 2.7% 4.5% 6.8% 17.2% 38.0% 24.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.