Race 3B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sherman Thompson 19.9% 18.6% 16.7% 14.4% 11.5% 8.5% 5.0% 3.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Hailey Feinzig 18.6% 17.5% 16.4% 12.7% 12.8% 9.1% 6.5% 4.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Mary Castellini 13.4% 10.7% 13.4% 11.5% 11.9% 14.5% 11.5% 6.9% 4.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Andrew Michels 3.4% 3.7% 4.6% 7.0% 9.2% 7.3% 12.8% 18.1% 16.8% 11.0% 5.3% 0.8%
Michael Rivkin 6.8% 7.6% 8.8% 9.2% 11.0% 11.4% 13.8% 12.9% 11.2% 5.6% 1.6% 0.1%
Chase Ireland 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 5.2% 4.8% 4.9% 7.6% 13.4% 20.0% 23.7% 10.7% 2.8%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 10.3% 11.0% 10.2% 11.9% 10.6% 13.7% 12.6% 10.4% 6.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Greg Bittle 9.3% 9.9% 9.1% 10.0% 10.7% 12.6% 13.0% 12.0% 7.9% 3.9% 1.5% 0.1%
Lillian Nemeth 13.4% 16.4% 14.8% 14.1% 13.1% 11.8% 7.8% 5.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Arthur Brown 1.3% 1.1% 2.5% 2.9% 2.6% 3.1% 5.2% 8.1% 15.3% 23.9% 25.1% 8.9%
River Martin 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 2.1% 2.4% 4.2% 7.8% 17.9% 34.4% 27.0%
Russell English 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 1.8% 1.4% 4.3% 8.2% 20.6% 60.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.