Race 4B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hailey Feinzig 18.7% 16.3% 15.7% 15.8% 12.8% 9.2% 5.3% 3.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Mary Castellini 10.7% 14.9% 13.3% 12.8% 12.8% 11.2% 10.4% 6.8% 5.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Sherman Thompson 21.0% 19.5% 15.8% 13.7% 12.1% 8.7% 5.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Michels 3.8% 2.7% 6.1% 6.1% 8.1% 9.9% 11.1% 16.4% 18.6% 11.6% 4.9% 0.7%
Chase Ireland 1.9% 3.0% 3.2% 4.2% 4.4% 5.4% 9.1% 13.0% 18.3% 21.6% 12.9% 3.0%
Greg Bittle 8.7% 8.4% 8.4% 10.8% 11.1% 14.0% 14.2% 11.9% 7.8% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 10.3% 10.8% 10.8% 11.1% 11.7% 11.9% 13.0% 11.1% 6.2% 1.8% 1.2% 0.1%
Michael Rivkin 8.4% 7.0% 9.4% 9.2% 10.1% 11.6% 12.9% 12.9% 10.8% 5.8% 1.8% 0.1%
Arthur Brown 1.7% 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 2.7% 3.2% 5.7% 9.2% 16.6% 25.4% 23.9% 7.6%
Lillian Nemeth 13.7% 15.8% 13.6% 12.6% 12.6% 11.9% 9.1% 6.8% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Russell English 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.9% 3.6% 7.9% 18.2% 63.7%
River Martin 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 2.3% 2.8% 3.7% 6.5% 19.4% 35.9% 24.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.