Race 5B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hailey Feinzig 18.8% 17.3% 15.7% 12.4% 14.2% 9.7% 5.4% 3.8% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Sherman Thompson 21.4% 21.2% 14.9% 14.1% 10.7% 7.3% 6.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Greg Bittle 9.4% 7.0% 11.2% 10.2% 9.0% 13.6% 12.7% 13.8% 8.9% 3.3% 0.9% 0.0%
Mary Castellini 10.7% 13.1% 15.0% 12.9% 12.1% 10.4% 10.5% 8.2% 5.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 8.8% 11.6% 10.6% 12.2% 11.5% 13.3% 12.1% 9.4% 7.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Lillian Nemeth 15.0% 13.1% 13.3% 13.7% 13.2% 11.3% 10.3% 6.3% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Chase Ireland 2.7% 3.2% 3.0% 3.3% 5.1% 7.4% 8.1% 11.6% 19.5% 20.0% 13.6% 2.5%
Russell English 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 1.5% 3.1% 4.4% 9.5% 18.6% 59.7%
Michael Rivkin 6.5% 6.7% 10.5% 10.0% 11.9% 11.6% 13.2% 14.2% 10.0% 4.1% 1.2% 0.1%
River Martin 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 2.4% 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 3.8% 7.9% 18.2% 34.3% 25.4%
Arthur Brown 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 1.7% 2.6% 3.2% 5.2% 6.6% 13.4% 26.1% 26.2% 11.0%
Andrew Michels 4.6% 4.4% 3.8% 6.4% 6.7% 8.9% 12.6% 16.6% 17.1% 13.6% 4.0% 1.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.