Race 6B

mcsa-fall

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hailey Feinzig 18.4% 17.2% 15.3% 15.5% 12.5% 9.0% 7.0% 2.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Sherman Thompson 21.3% 20.1% 15.9% 14.0% 9.8% 9.0% 5.2% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Rivkin 7.9% 7.0% 7.8% 9.2% 10.0% 11.7% 14.3% 15.4% 10.8% 4.8% 1.1% 0.0%
Greg Bittle 6.8% 9.1% 9.2% 13.6% 10.2% 12.7% 13.1% 10.6% 10.0% 4.0% 0.5% 0.2%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 9.2% 10.3% 10.7% 12.3% 12.3% 12.1% 12.7% 8.5% 7.2% 3.9% 0.7% 0.1%
Lillian Nemeth 14.0% 14.3% 14.4% 12.8% 13.4% 12.0% 9.0% 5.9% 2.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Mary Castellini 13.3% 12.1% 14.0% 11.3% 13.4% 11.8% 10.6% 7.8% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Andrew Michels 4.4% 5.5% 5.1% 5.5% 7.9% 8.8% 11.1% 16.3% 17.3% 12.6% 4.8% 0.7%
Chase Ireland 2.3% 2.0% 3.1% 2.4% 6.0% 7.5% 8.9% 12.8% 21.8% 21.3% 10.5% 1.4%
Arthur Brown 1.1% 1.2% 2.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 4.0% 9.6% 13.1% 25.8% 24.7% 9.3%
River Martin 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 2.9% 4.2% 7.4% 16.3% 35.8% 27.6%
Russell English 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 1.2% 2.3% 3.2% 7.9% 21.4% 60.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.