Race 10B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sherman Thompson 20.1% 18.3% 18.4% 14.8% 11.1% 8.4% 4.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Lillian Nemeth 13.4% 15.1% 13.5% 16.5% 11.1% 11.3% 8.7% 6.0% 3.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Rivkin 7.8% 7.1% 8.2% 8.7% 10.4% 11.8% 13.3% 15.8% 11.6% 3.6% 1.6% 0.1%
Mary Castellini 10.8% 12.6% 14.5% 12.4% 13.2% 12.4% 11.0% 6.9% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Andrew Michels 3.9% 4.1% 5.2% 6.0% 8.3% 8.2% 13.0% 14.2% 17.8% 13.6% 4.9% 0.8%
Nicholas Peluchiwski 10.8% 8.4% 10.2% 10.4% 12.5% 13.6% 12.9% 11.9% 5.8% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Hailey Feinzig 18.9% 19.7% 15.7% 12.6% 12.4% 8.2% 7.0% 3.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Greg Bittle 10.4% 8.6% 8.9% 11.4% 10.5% 12.5% 13.2% 11.3% 8.5% 3.1% 1.6% 0.0%
Chase Ireland 1.9% 2.5% 2.7% 3.1% 5.1% 7.1% 9.0% 14.6% 19.9% 21.4% 10.4% 2.3%
Arthur Brown 0.7% 2.1% 1.9% 2.8% 3.3% 2.6% 4.2% 7.4% 15.2% 25.7% 24.2% 9.9%
Russell English 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 1.7% 4.4% 9.1% 17.9% 62.5%
River Martin 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 2.9% 2.7% 3.2% 7.3% 17.1% 38.3% 24.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.