Race 11B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sherman Thompson 19.1% 17.3% 16.2% 16.7% 10.6% 9.2% 5.8% 3.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Hailey Feinzig 17.5% 18.0% 15.6% 13.9% 12.0% 9.6% 6.0% 4.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Rivkin 7.1% 6.9% 7.7% 9.2% 10.1% 11.4% 14.7% 15.4% 10.7% 5.7% 1.1% 0.0%
Chase Ireland 1.5% 2.1% 3.4% 2.9% 5.0% 6.0% 9.5% 13.4% 19.4% 21.5% 12.3% 3.0%
Lillian Nemeth 12.6% 13.3% 15.6% 12.0% 14.5% 10.0% 10.6% 6.3% 3.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Greg Bittle 7.8% 8.6% 8.6% 10.5% 11.7% 14.1% 11.9% 12.5% 9.2% 4.3% 0.8% 0.0%
Andrew Michels 4.4% 4.7% 4.8% 6.2% 7.4% 8.8% 12.5% 14.7% 17.8% 11.8% 5.1% 1.8%
Thomas Szymanski 15.4% 14.6% 13.7% 12.3% 11.7% 12.9% 8.4% 6.6% 2.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Arthur Brown 1.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.8% 3.2% 2.1% 5.5% 9.2% 16.4% 26.4% 24.2% 7.6%
Mary Castellini 11.7% 12.5% 11.8% 13.5% 12.5% 13.4% 10.2% 7.2% 5.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
River Martin 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 1.7% 3.1% 3.9% 8.8% 16.7% 34.2% 27.6%
Russell English 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 1.8% 2.3% 3.1% 8.2% 21.7% 59.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.