Race 12B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

91.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hailey Feinzig 17.2% 15.8% 15.0% 17.0% 12.0% 10.0% 6.9% 4.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Sherman Thompson 20.1% 19.2% 15.8% 14.6% 9.6% 8.9% 7.1% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Lillian Nemeth 14.3% 11.9% 14.4% 12.3% 13.2% 12.6% 10.3% 7.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Thomas Szymanski 13.0% 15.0% 14.4% 12.8% 13.0% 11.9% 9.1% 6.7% 2.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Mary Castellini 11.5% 11.9% 13.2% 12.2% 12.8% 12.8% 10.2% 7.5% 5.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Greg Bittle 8.0% 8.9% 8.2% 9.0% 12.6% 12.2% 13.3% 13.5% 9.3% 3.6% 1.3% 0.1%
Michael Rivkin 7.1% 8.8% 7.2% 8.3% 10.9% 11.2% 13.7% 15.0% 11.5% 4.2% 2.0% 0.1%
Andrew Michels 4.8% 4.2% 5.2% 5.4% 7.5% 9.1% 11.0% 16.2% 18.3% 12.7% 4.9% 0.7%
Chase Ireland 1.7% 2.3% 2.4% 4.2% 4.1% 6.1% 10.6% 12.2% 21.9% 22.9% 10.1% 1.5%
Arthur Brown 1.0% 1.0% 2.6% 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 5.1% 7.7% 14.3% 26.7% 24.3% 9.4%
River Martin 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 4.1% 7.9% 17.0% 35.3% 27.5%
Russell English 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.9% 2.6% 3.2% 8.1% 21.2% 60.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.