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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.45+6.09vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.25+10.62vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.69+3.29vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.63+2.26vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.32+7.26vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.46+5.60vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.14+5.80vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.51+3.52vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+0.29vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.45-3.06vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University1.31+1.09vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.90-2.57vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.24-5.08vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.15-0.56vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-3.65vs Predicted
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16Harvard University1.69-5.60vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.90-2.66vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.02-0.32vs Predicted
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19Northeastern University2.00-10.22vs Predicted
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20University of South Florida0.66-4.65vs Predicted
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21Bates College-1.38-0.36vs Predicted
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22Dartmouth College0.72-7.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.09Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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12.62Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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6.29Yale University2.690.1%1st Place
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6.26Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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12.26University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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11.6Roger Williams University1.460.0%1st Place
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12.8Brown University1.140.0%1st Place
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11.52Tufts University1.510.0%1st Place
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9.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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6.94Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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12.09Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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9.43Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.92University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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13.44Connecticut College1.150.0%1st Place
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11.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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10.4Harvard University1.690.0%1st Place
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14.34University of Michigan0.900.0%1st Place
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17.68Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.020.0%1st Place
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8.78Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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15.35University of South Florida0.660.0%1st Place
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20.64Bates College-1.380.0%1st Place
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14.91Dartmouth College0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Mateo Farina | 10.4% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
| Emmett Nevel | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Helen Horangic | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 0.9% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Shea Smith | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Declan Botwinick | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Glasson | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Emily Pytell | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 2.8% |
| Nicholas Dreyer | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 14.0% | 26.9% | 14.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Hella Kornatzki | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 4.3% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 10.3% | 69.7% |
| Connor Vogel | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.