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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.69+5.11vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.51+9.32vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.45+4.23vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.25+8.70vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.32+7.26vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.63+0.27vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.45-0.12vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University1.46+3.70vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.15+4.08vs Predicted
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10Harvard University1.69+0.35vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida0.66+4.08vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.24-4.10vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.31-0.68vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.00-4.68vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94-5.36vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.90-1.94vs Predicted
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17Brown University1.14-3.76vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College0.72-3.10vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.02-1.35vs Predicted
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20Bates College-1.38+0.71vs Predicted
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21U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-10.09vs Predicted
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22Tufts University1.90-12.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.11Yale University2.690.1%1st Place
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11.32Tufts University1.510.0%1st Place
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7.23Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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12.7Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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12.26University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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6.27Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.88Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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11.7Roger Williams University1.460.0%1st Place
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13.08Connecticut College1.150.0%1st Place
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10.35Harvard University1.690.0%1st Place
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15.08University of South Florida0.660.0%1st Place
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7.9University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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12.32Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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9.32Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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9.64Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.0%1st Place
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14.06University of Michigan0.900.0%1st Place
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13.24Brown University1.140.0%1st Place
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14.9Dartmouth College0.720.0%1st Place
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17.65Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.020.0%1st Place
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20.71Bates College-1.380.0%1st Place
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10.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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9.37Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Farina | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Mason Stang | 10.4% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emmett Nevel | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Will Glasson | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 1.3% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Hella Kornatzki | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 3.1% |
| Declan Botwinick | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 0.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Brock | 4.4% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Emily Pytell | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 2.2% |
| Helen Horangic | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 1.6% |
| Connor Vogel | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% |
| Nicholas Dreyer | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 27.6% | 12.9% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 9.5% | 72.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.