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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.45+6.17vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.39+5.35vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.63+3.52vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.25+8.74vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.32+7.41vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.45+1.05vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.51+4.17vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.00+1.23vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.90+0.53vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.14+3.12vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan0.90+3.03vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-0.98vs Predicted
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13Harvard University1.69-2.40vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.46-1.99vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.24-6.65vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.02+1.74vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94-7.50vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida1.37-5.92vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College1.15-6.01vs Predicted
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20Dartmouth College0.72-4.74vs Predicted
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21Salve Regina University1.31-8.63vs Predicted
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22Bates College-1.38-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.17Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.35Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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6.52Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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12.74Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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12.41University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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7.05Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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11.17Tufts University1.510.0%1st Place
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9.23Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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9.53Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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13.12Brown University1.140.0%1st Place
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14.03University of Michigan0.900.0%1st Place
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11.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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10.6Harvard University1.690.0%1st Place
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12.01Roger Williams University1.460.0%1st Place
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8.35University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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17.74Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.020.0%1st Place
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9.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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12.08University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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12.99Connecticut College1.150.0%1st Place
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15.26Dartmouth College0.720.0%1st Place
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12.37Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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20.75Bates College-1.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Sih | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 0.8% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 0.8% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Helen Horangic | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 1.2% |
| Emily Pytell | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 2.2% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Emmett Nevel | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Declan Botwinick | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dreyer | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 28.5% | 16.2% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| Will Glasson | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 0.7% |
| Connor Vogel | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 3.9% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 11.1% | 71.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.