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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.90+8.67vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.39+5.34vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.51+8.78vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.15+9.22vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan0.90+9.30vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+3.40vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.25+5.41vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.24+0.14vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.46+2.62vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.45-3.03vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.45-4.19vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.32+0.38vs Predicted
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13Harvard University1.69-2.38vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.00-4.66vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.63-8.40vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.37-3.97vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-5.88vs Predicted
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18Brown University1.14-4.84vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.02-1.25vs Predicted
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20Dartmouth College0.72-4.69vs Predicted
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21Bates College-1.38-0.29vs Predicted
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22Salve Regina University1.31-9.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.67Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.34Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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11.78Tufts University1.510.0%1st Place
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13.22Connecticut College1.150.0%1st Place
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14.3University of Michigan0.900.0%1st Place
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9.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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12.41Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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8.14University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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11.62Roger Williams University1.460.0%1st Place
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6.97Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.81Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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12.38University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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10.62Harvard University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.34Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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6.6Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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12.03University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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11.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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13.16Brown University1.140.0%1st Place
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17.75Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.020.0%1st Place
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15.31Dartmouth College0.720.0%1st Place
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20.71Bates College-1.380.0%1st Place
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12.3Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Sih | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 4.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Will Glasson | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 1.3% |
| Emily Pytell | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 2.0% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 0.7% |
| Declan Botwinick | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emmett Nevel | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.5% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Mason Stang | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Helen Horangic | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 1.0% |
| Nicholas Dreyer | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 12.2% | 28.6% | 14.4% |
| Connor Vogel | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 3.7% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 10.1% | 72.4% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.