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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+5.06vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+4.28vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.18+6.65vs Predicted
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4Princeton University2.35+4.61vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.20+4.27vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+5.15vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.62+0.73vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.69-3.84vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.03+1.04vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.91+0.74vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.68-3.33vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.59+3.03vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.77-2.14vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-8.50vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.11-5.32vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.16-6.42vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.11-3.59vs Predicted
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18William and Mary0.21-2.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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6.28SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.65Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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8.61Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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9.27Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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11.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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7.73Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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4.16Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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10.04University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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10.74Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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7.67George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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15.03Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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10.86Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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5.5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.68Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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9.58Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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13.41Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
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15.57William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 9.1% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| John McKenna | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.1% |
| Edward Cook | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| JC Hermus | 21.2% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
| Matt Logue | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Magno | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 20.9% | 31.5% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 2.7% |
| Leo Boucher | 12.5% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 17.8% | 11.7% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 21.0% | 41.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.