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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+5.07vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.62+5.95vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.69+1.28vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.68+3.46vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.03+4.93vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-0.35vs Predicted
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7Princeton University2.35+1.80vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.18+1.34vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.20+0.37vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.91+0.70vs Predicted
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11William and Mary0.21+4.70vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-0.47vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.11-3.44vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.06-8.01vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.11-1.68vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.77-4.95vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech0.59-2.06vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.16-8.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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7.95Georgetown University2.620.0%1st Place
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4.28Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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7.46George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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9.93University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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5.65St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.8Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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9.34Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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9.37Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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10.7Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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15.7William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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11.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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9.56Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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5.99SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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13.32Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
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11.05Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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14.94Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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9.36Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 16.9% | 16.8% | 14.6% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Logue | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Leo Boucher | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 46.1% |
| John McKenna | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 2.5% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Benton Amthor | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 16.4% | 12.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 2.3% |
| Christopher Magno | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 23.0% | 29.4% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.