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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.06+5.31vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.16+7.79vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+8.39vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.91+6.38vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.68+2.39vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.69-1.83vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.18+2.36vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.11+1.65vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.03+0.95vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-3.97vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-5.30vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.62-3.99vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.20-3.75vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.21+1.55vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech0.59-0.15vs Predicted
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16Princeton University2.35-7.15vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.11-3.50vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.77-7.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.31SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.79Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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11.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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10.38Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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7.39George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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4.17Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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9.36Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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9.65Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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9.95University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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6.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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5.7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.01Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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9.25Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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15.55William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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14.85Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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8.85Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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13.5Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
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10.88Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| John McKenna | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 3.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Matt Logue | 7.7% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| JC Hermus | 18.3% | 16.1% | 17.3% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Jake Vickers | 11.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 42.5% |
| Christopher Magno | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 12.5% | 22.4% | 28.3% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 18.8% | 13.9% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.