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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.06+5.28vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.62+5.90vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.91+7.60vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.16+5.31vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+0.78vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.69-1.85vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-1.41vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.11+1.52vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.20+0.25vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.03+0.13vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.74-3.68vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.18-2.38vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.21+2.44vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.79-0.13vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-4.06vs Predicted
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16Princeton University2.35-7.25vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.77-6.01vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech0.18-2.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.28SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.9Georgetown University2.620.0%1st Place
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10.6Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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9.31Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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5.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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4.15Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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5.59St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.52Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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9.25Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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10.13University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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7.32George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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9.62Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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15.44William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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13.87Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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10.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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8.75Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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10.99Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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15.54Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Jake Vickers | 12.5% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 18.7% | 15.9% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Michael Ehnot | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 21.2% | 38.1% |
| David Grace | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 20.5% | 15.3% |
| John McKenna | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 1.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 5.5% | 2.3% |
| Aidan Young | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 23.9% | 36.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.