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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+3.41vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.16+7.67vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.06+3.27vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.62+3.59vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.18+4.31vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-0.18vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+3.46vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-2.44vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.03+0.97vs Predicted
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10Princeton University2.35-1.00vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.74-3.59vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-0.57vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.20-3.82vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.11-4.60vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.77-4.10vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.21-0.29vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech0.59-2.15vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.79-3.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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9.67Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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6.27SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.59Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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9.31Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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5.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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10.46Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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5.56St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.97University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.0Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.41George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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11.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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9.18Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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9.4Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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10.9Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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15.71William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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14.85Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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14.06Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 16.5% | 18.3% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.7% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Jake Vickers | 10.7% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| Leo Boucher | 11.7% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Michael Ehnot | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 3.6% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 2.7% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 19.2% | 43.6% |
| Christopher Magno | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 21.4% | 27.3% |
| David Grace | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 15.8% | 21.2% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.