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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+3.32vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.62+5.94vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.74+4.43vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.11+5.49vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+0.58vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.18+3.40vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech0.59+7.68vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-2.21vs Predicted
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9William and Mary0.21+6.70vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.03+0.23vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.16-1.31vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.06-5.60vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-2.07vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.79-0.03vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.77-4.04vs Predicted
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16Princeton University2.35-7.21vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.20-7.53vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.91-7.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.32Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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7.94Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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7.43George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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9.49Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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5.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.4Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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14.68Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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5.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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15.7William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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10.23University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.69Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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6.4SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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13.97Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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10.96Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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8.79Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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9.47Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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10.25Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 17.7% | 16.5% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 5.0% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Michael Ehnot | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Leo Boucher | 13.4% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Christopher Magno | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 22.2% | 25.7% |
| Jake Vickers | 11.7% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 10.8% | 17.1% | 44.8% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 1.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 2.6% |
| David Grace | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 22.1% | 16.9% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.