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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.74+6.47vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+3.71vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+3.00vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.69+0.18vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.08vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.18+3.38vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.03+2.98vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.11+1.54vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.62-1.42vs Predicted
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10Hampton University1.77+1.15vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.20-1.57vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.16-2.22vs Predicted
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13Princeton University2.35-4.42vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-3.25vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.91-4.63vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech0.59-1.25vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.79-2.73vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-0.06-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.47George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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4.18Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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6.08SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.38Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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9.98University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.54Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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7.58Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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11.15Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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9.43Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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9.78Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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8.58Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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10.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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10.37Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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14.75Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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14.27Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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15.99William and Mary-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Ehnot | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.3% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 19.5% | 17.4% | 14.5% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Edward Cook | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 2.3% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| John McKenna | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| Christopher Magno | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 23.9% | 22.9% |
| David Grace | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 21.9% | 17.5% |
| Sam Dutilly | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 21.3% | 48.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.