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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+5.03vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+4.25vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+2.71vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.74+3.13vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.62+2.69vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.69-1.79vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.11+2.64vs Predicted
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8Princeton University2.35+0.58vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.20+0.24vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.03+0.11vs Predicted
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11Hampton University1.77-0.08vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.91-1.32vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.16-3.76vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-3.30vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.18-5.71vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech0.18-0.39vs Predicted
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17William and Mary-0.06-0.93vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.79-4.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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6.25SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.13George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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7.69Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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4.21Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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9.64Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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8.58Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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9.24Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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10.11University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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10.92Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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10.68Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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9.24Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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10.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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9.29Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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15.61Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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16.07William and Mary-0.060.0%1st Place
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13.89Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.9% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Ehnot | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| JC Hermus | 18.9% | 17.3% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 1.1% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| John McKenna | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Young | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 24.5% | 35.4% |
| Sam Dutilly | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 22.6% | 45.7% |
| David Grace | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 12.2% | 18.5% | 20.4% | 11.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.