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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.69+8.96vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech0.47+12.34vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.31vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.63+2.14vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.54+1.49vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.93+2.91vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.49-0.20vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-1.78vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.35-1.76vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-1.33vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.78+2.13vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.50-5.04vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.93-4.26vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.59-0.60vs Predicted
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15William and Mary0.68-1.60vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.19-8.03vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.34-2.48vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.81-5.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.96Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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14.34Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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5.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.14George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.49Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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8.91Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.8U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.24University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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13.13Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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6.96Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.74Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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13.4Washington College0.590.0%1st Place
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13.4William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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7.97SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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14.52Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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12.79Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payne Donaldson | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 18.1% | 20.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.9% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 10.5% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Diego Escobar | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Gray Benson | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 9.4% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 12.4% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Camden Ward | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 14.6% | 14.2% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 14.1% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Jasper Waldman | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 17.4% | 26.8% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.